Current Bullshit

I started trading again. It is casino, but I do not think I can invent anything more entertaining for my boring office time killing life sucking environment than stock trading. I finish this month of total world stock market investors despair in decent 2.5% return. Not bad at all, but again I’m doing this not for money, but for entertainment.

American stock market investor is very stupid fellow. He actually believes that Donald Trump can deliver a trade deal with China. Some stupid American investors even think that China will open its financial market fully to American banks and they really count on quick deal and sudden stock market appreciation. What a bunch of stupid morons. Those morons also were stupid enough to believe that Putin would be ousted of power, that Assad would flee Damask and Russian killers executed chemical attack on British soil. They believed all of this for years. Now they believe that Trump will force China to open its market to American oligarchs. Yeah… Also Vladimir Putin will return Crimea to Nazi Ukraine any minute. Any minute now…

This is not all, American stupid investor believes that real estate market somehow will survive because Federal Reserve has promised to be more reasonable with future interest rates increases. Like real estate market depends on how big mortgage rates are. Real Estate market depends on Chinese investors who were buying houses and apartments all over the world spending billions each day in cash for last 10 years. Now this regular Chinese investor has died of natural causes – Mainland economic slowdown. Why the fuck you expecting a miracle on this market when main consumer is dead? Why cares how big mortgage rates are going to be? There is no Buyers anymore… Only sellers – American baby boomers… They selling their houses in droves along with their adult children who still live in basements and smart enough (product of American education) not to be office slaves like their parents were.

Why Russia sold its American Treasuries?

Not so much the big news, but it’s being broadcast by American mass media with enough frequency that it was impossible not to notice – Russia sold almost all American Treasuries that were in its possesion. The event is not very important. Russia was fifteenth biggest holder of US Treasuries. American Mass Media emphasizes that if China would begin to sell its bonds – the holder number one, then certainly it would be some sort of disasters event. But Russia is so a small player on this market.

However, there is much to think about, especially since the Putin administration never makes hasty decisions. It is obvious that the discharge of treasuries was well thought out and the time is well chosen. What is it really? 100 billion in three months? Are they scared of sanctions? Or they have conceived to do something bad with American interests, so they deduce American assets in advance?

Probably not that and not another. Russia sold American Treasuries because it has some knowledge about the upcoming event, which has already been scheduled, but has not yet happened. All this resembles a well-directed game. I do not rule out even that Russia received information from China that the Chinese preparing to do something bad on American Treasuries market, but tiped the partner (Russia) to sell before they start. China decided to let Russia leave the game first and not to hurt his partner.

Russia probably is a small player in the twenty-trillion US bond market, but nevertheless it is a well-informed player and I would recommend not to downplay actions of Russian bankers.